January 2026 | GTA Real Estate Market Insight
The GTA housing market started 2026 on a slow note. Inventory levels remained elevated across most regions, while sales activity declined compared to December 2025. This has given buyers more choice and greater negotiating power, especially in areas where supply has built up the most.
In many parts of the GTA, the number of homes available for sale is outpacing demand. As a result, properties are taking longer to sell, with downward pressure on prices across most segments. Homes in high-demand areas that are move-in ready, have functional layouts, and are priced appropriately continue to sell, but buyers are taking more time and being more selective.
NOTE: “Months of Inventory” is the ratio of active listings to homes sold in a given month. It represents how long the current inventory of homes would last, given the current sales rate and if no additional inventory were added to the market. It is the most critical indicator for determining whether a market favours buyers or sellers.
The GTA’s Detached Market Tilts Further Toward Buyers (While Semis and Towns Hold the Line)
The January 2026 low-rise housing market in the GTA continued trending more buyer-friendly, especially for detached homes. I always look at Months of Inventory (MOI) – a measure of supply and demand – to gauge market conditions across key regions. In simple terms, higher MOI usually means buyers have more choice and negotiating leverage, while lower MOI tends to favour sellers.
The detached market across the GTA has been nudging toward buyers for months, and the first month of 2026 pushed that trend further along. Inventory is building, negotiating leverage is widening, and in most regions, prices are facing mild downward pressure.
The story isn’t uniform. Durham is holding on to a balanced market, while Toronto, Peel, and York are sliding slightly deeper into buyer territory. And yet, “over asking” sales haven’t disappeared. They’ve simply become more selective, less a sign of a hot market and more a reflection of how uneven the listing pool has become.
“Over Asking” Isn’t Gone
Here’s the part that can confuse people: even in buyer-market conditions, some homes still sell over asking.
In January:
Toronto: 28% of detached homes sold over asking
Durham: 18%
York: 13%
Peel: 13%
Anecdotally, this is often driven by a wide range of listing strategies. A decent chunk of inventory is made up of sellers who are listing “just to see” if they can get a price they’d accept, which can inflate inventory with overpriced or stale listings. At the same time, move-in ready homes in strong locations with functional layouts, especially when priced below market, can still attract multiple offers. It’s not the norm across the board, but it explains why competitive outcomes still appear in certain pockets. Right now, the market is rewarding good properties that show well, not anywhere near 2022 prices, but good for the current conditions.
Semis, as usual, are better than detached homes, helped by relative affordability and a buyer pool that’s value-sensitive. In January, the semi-detached segment across the GTA sat in a balanced market, edging toward seller-friendly territory.
GTA semi-detached MOI (January 2026): ~3.2
That’s not the kind of number that sparks bidding wars everywhere, but it is the kind that keeps clean, well-priced homes moving.
Freehold towns remained balanced in January, with MOI typically hovering in the 3–4 month range, and no significant movement on prices. Multiple offers are generally uncommon, and buyers tend to have enough selection to negotiate.
Condos: Buyers Still in the Driver’s Seat
Condo apartments stayed in a buyer’s market, and we’re still seeing slight to moderate downward pressure on prices. Durham was the closest to balanced conditions, but it’s worth noting that sales volume was very light (around 30 sales), so the numbers can swing more than usual. Elsewhere, the market clearly leaned toward buyers: Toronto (7.3 MOI), York (7.0 MOI), and Peel (8.1 MOI) all remained in buyer’s market territory.
What this means on the ground: condo sellers need to be sharp right now, pricing has to be aggressive from day one, and presentation matters more than ever to generate showings and offers.
Condo townhouses were a bit steadier, sitting in a slight buyer’s market across most GTA areas, generally in the 4–6 MOI range. With conditions closer to balanced than condo apartments, prices for condo towns were mostly flat, with little to no overall movement month-over-month.
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